Global copper surplus forecast to more than triple in 2027

The International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper surplus to more than triple, from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, as smelter and refinery production rebounds faster than demand.

Why it matters: The widening surplus is a processing story, not a demand collapse: expanding smelter capacity in Indonesia, India and Europe outruns modest consumption growth, which loosens a market miners have treated as structurally short despite electrification and data centre demand.

Data as of Corrected Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 11:58 ET. An earlier version of this item, published at 11:50 ET, carried incorrect surplus and production figures and has been replaced. The figures here are the ICSG forecast announced Wednesday after its Lisbon meetings, as reported by Mining.com, read in full via a live browser session, and corroborated by Engineering News reporting of the same forecast.

Correction: An earlier version of this item carried incorrect ICSG figures. The correct forecast is a refined copper surplus of 104,000 tonnes in 2026, rising to 368,000 tonnes in 2027.

The International Copper Study Group expects refined copper production to rise 0.4 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, driven by smelter and refinery ramp-ups in Indonesia, India and the European Union, improved operating rates in Chile and increased output from scrap, after concentrate shortages constrained smelter output this year. Mine production is forecast to grow 1.3 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027, helped by recovery at Indonesia’s Grasberg and the DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula mines. Refined usage is expected to grow more slowly, 1.5 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027, with Asia the main source of growth and China accounting for 59 percent of global refined consumption.

Global copper surplus forecast to more than triple in 2027

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