Nigeria’s disinflation may have interrupted in September. BusinessDay projects headline inflation rose to 15.5 percent in the month, which would end three consecutive months of decline, with the volatility in oil prices, with Brent holding near and above $100 a barrel, clouding the outlook.
The projection, published on October 13, is a forecast ahead of the official National Bureau of Statistics release, not the print itself, and it is single sourced in this edition. It should be read as a marker for what would count as a surprise: a rise back toward the mid teens after the easing run that the IMF described on Tuesday, when it projected inflation reaching 14.7 percent by 2027 on its updated outlook.
The stakes are immediate for the Central Bank of Nigeria. The bank cut its policy rate by 350 basis points to 23.0 percent in September, a move markets treated as the start of an easing cycle, and the IMF on Tuesday pressed it to return inflation to target within its two to three year policy horizon. A September uptick driven by fuel would not by itself reverse that cycle, given the CBN’s tolerance for energy pass through elsewhere in the region, but it would slow its pace.
The official print, when it lands, will either validate the projection and reset expectations for the November meeting, or show the decline intact and leave the easing path as the market currently prices it.