Latest (07:51 ET): The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile launched toward Riyadh on Wednesday, and Saudi civil defence issued two early warning alerts, for Al-Kharj governorate and the capital, before saying the danger had passed. The Houthis said they had targeted Aramco facilities in Dhahran, an Aramco refinery in Riyadh and King Khalid international airport. In the Strait of Hormuz, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre has recorded 15 attacks between October 6 and 14, 11 of them in the past four days, and tracking firm Kpler put oil carried through the strait at just 2.9 million barrels on October 11, down from 20.8 million barrels on October 8 and a pre-war average of 17.1 million barrels a day. Iran’s navy said it has expanded surveillance east of the strait, and a US military official confirmed to Reuters that Iranian forces have changed tactics, using unarmed spotters in small boats to call in targets.
Brent crude rose 89 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $106.58 a barrel by 0030 GMT on Wednesday, and US West Texas Intermediate gained 80 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $94.94, reversing Tuesday’s late slide as traders weighed a fresh Houthi strike inside Saudi Arabia against the prospect of more Russian diesel. The site market tables, fetched at 03:45 ET, show the same direction at slightly lower levels: Brent at $106.38, up 0.65 percent on the day and 6.17 percent on the week, and WTI at $94.56, up 0.45 percent.
The trigger was geographic as much as numerical. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said the Houthis attacked an administrative building belonging to Saudi Aramco in Dhahran, the city that hosts the company’s headquarters, causing a limited fire. The group has fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia over the past week in retaliation for the kingdom’s support of Yemeni government forces, and Riyadh’s international airport has been hit four times, with the Saturday strike killing 13 people.
Analysts framed the session as a tug of war. Nissan Securities Investment strategist Hiroyuki Kikukawa told Reuters that supply concern from the Houthi-Saudi conflict is driving prices higher, while expectations that increased Russian diesel exports will ease market tightness are likely to limit sharp moves in either direction. He projected WTI would trade between $90 and $100 a barrel.
The background balance still argues against panic. OPEC said on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia raised production last month despite disrupted shipments, leading a sharp increase in OPEC+ output, and Russia’s government said it saw no direct link between Ukraine peace talks and its diesel export deal with the United States. But with the Saudi-Houthi front now reaching Dhahran itself, the market is pricing infrastructure risk again rather than only shipping risk.