Copper forecasters have raised their 2026 numbers for the second time in three months. Macquarie now averages $13,573 a tonne for the year, BMO Capital Markets $13,619 and BMI $13,500, against a year to date average of $13,471. The consensus ends there. From 2027 the decks diverge by more than $1,800 a tonne, and the split turns on how each bank treats the copper stockpiled in the United States ahead of a possible Section 232 tariff decision.
Macquarie counts a 223,000 tonne surplus this year and surpluses averaging more than 700,000 tonnes a year from 2027, as mine supply grows 4.9 percent next year and demand growth slows to 1.5 percent, with none in China. It lifted its 2027 average by 14 percent to $12,750 anyway, and warned that a decision against a tariff could see the Comex price collapse and surplus American stocks reappear in LME warehouses. Visible stocks outside the United States are down 168,000 tonnes this year even as the global total rose 300,000 tonnes.
BMO reaches the opposite balance from similar data: an 83,000 tonne surplus this year, then small deficits. It argues the American build, close to 2 million tonnes or about a year of US consumption, was matched by China letting its own less visible stocks run down, so metal changed location rather than accumulating. On that reading BMO lifted its long term price by 47 percent to $16,000 a tonne in real terms. BMI sits between the two, with a 43,000 tonne surplus this year and deficits from 2027 widening to 1.7 million tonnes by 2035.
For miners the practical point is valuation, not the spot tape. RBC calculates North American copper producers trade at about 1.0 times net asset value at an implied copper price of $5.03 a pound, well below futures near $6.70, so equity values are not pricing either bank’s bull case. Comex copper eased on Wednesday after the Escondida settlement removed part of the supply premium, and the October 15 market table put copper down 0.75 percent at $6.56 a pound.