Iron ore prices fell for a third straight session on Thursday. The benchmark November contract on the Singapore Exchange was down 0.66 percent at $89.85 a tonne in early trade, its weakest level since September 24, 2024, and the most traded Dalian contract fell 0.82 percent to 669 yuan, about $99.95 a tonne. Prices are down roughly 15 percent this year.
Demand is the larger problem. Chinese crude steel output in the first eight months was the lowest for that period since 2018 as the property downturn continues, mill margins are thin, and downstream steel demand weakened even in the traditional peak season. Steel benchmarks in Shanghai also fell on Thursday, with rebar down 0.59 percent and stainless steel down 2.26 percent, while coking coal slid 3.67 percent.
Supply is still growing into that weakness. China’s iron ore imports rose 4.1 percent in the first nine months to 954.97 million tonnes, on track for a record year, and analysts point to the ramp up of the Simandou project in Guinea as a new source of seaborne tonnes. Falling freight rates add to the downside, since cheaper shipping lowers the delivered cost floor.
The World Steel Association has cut its outlook to a 0.1 percent contraction in global steel demand for 2026, reversing an April forecast of 0.3 percent growth. BHP fell 1.99 percent and Rio Tinto 1.94 percent in the October 15 market table.