Pakistan will have to pay in excess of $1 billion to secure liquefied natural gas supply for the winter months, as it buys on the spot market at prices roughly double those of its disrupted Qatari term contracts. The government plans to import 10 spot cargoes for delivery between November 2026 and February 2027, the Tribune reported on Tuesday, with Asian spot prices at three year highs and European buyers competing for the same cargoes.
The exposure is structural. Pakistan sourced 99 percent of its 2025 LNG imports from Qatar, and when Qatar declared force majeure in March after Iranian strikes damaged the Ras Laffan export hub, Pakistan had no diversified book to fall back on. Wood Mackenzie estimates the closure reduced Pakistan bound LNG by up to 0.4 million tons a month from March to November, and that the country has had to curtail demand, switch fuels and release withheld domestic gas, resulting in over 2.5 million tons of gas demand destruction. The consultancy calls Pakistan the most affected market in South Asia.
Some Qatari cargoes have reached Pakistan in recent months after Iran gave direct assurances that the vessels would be safe transiting Hormuz, but volumes remain well short of contract levels, and the spot purchases carry a direct fiscal cost. Higher LNG prices have already pushed Pakistan’s power generation costs up this year.
The winter bill is therefore both an energy story and a balance of payments story. A four month, billion dollar spot programme, bought at the top of a war market, is the price of single supplier dependence that was invisible while Ras Laffan delivered on schedule.