The Reserve Bank of India ran a full week of liquidity operations in the window: an open market sale auction settled on October 14, overnight variable rate reverse repo auctions on October 14 and 15, treasury bill auctions across the 91, 182 and 364 day tenors, and an underwriting auction for a 34,000 crore rupee government security sale scheduled for October 16. The pattern is fine tuning at the front of the curve rather than any change of stance.
Australia’s jobs report and Britain’s GDP print were both published by the catalyst watcher before this edition: employment fell 39,300 in September with unemployment at 4.7 percent, and UK output rose 0.1 percent in August. The Philippine peso’s record low beyond 63 to the dollar, the PBoC’s Qatar swap line and UBS’s Swiss contingency plans were likewise published overnight and are not repeated here.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem sits on a panel in Bangkok on Friday, October 16, and external deputy governor Michelle Alexopoulos holds a fireside chat the same day, the week’s main Canadian central bank exposure. The Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey also speaks on Friday, three weeks before the November 5 rate decision.
The Bank of England has published the minutes of its September money markets committee meeting, the standing forum between the Bank and sterling money market participants, a routine release that matters this autumn for what it says about gilt market functioning after the 10 year yield touched its highest since 2007.
The day’s biggest scheduled print is still ahead: US September producer prices and retail sales land at 08:30 ET, with the Fed’s Beige Book following later in the week. After September CPI at 3.9 percent, a hot PPI would harden the case that the easing cycle is over.