Ship recycling fell 13 percent in the first nine months of 2026 as owners kept older vessels trading instead of selling them for scrap. According to Clarksons Research, 273 ships with a combined 5.5 million gross tons, or around 8 million deadweight tons, were sold for recycling between January and September, about 60 percent below the average recorded during the 2000s and 2010s. Less than 0.5 percent of the global merchant fleet’s tonnage has been scrapped each year for the past five years, a lower rate than during the 2006 to 2008 shipping boom and the longest stretch of low recycling since the early 1970s.
The reason is earnings. The ClarkSea Index, which tracks shipping earnings across segments, rose 12 percent in the week to October 9 to a record $84,951 a day, its fifth consecutive all time high. The average for 2026 so far is 70 percent higher than a year earlier and 87 percent above the 10 year trend. Scrap steel prices at South Asian yards have also risen 20 to 25 percent this year, but operating earnings and secondhand values beat the breaker’s bid.
The fleet is ageing in consequence. More than 340 million gross tons of merchant capacity is now at least 20 years old, nearly 90 percent more than five years ago and almost 20 percent of the global fleet, against about 12 percent in 2021. Tonnage aged 25 years or more exceeds 150 million gross tons. About 22 percent of tanker capacity is over 20 years old, against 8 percent five years ago, and the over 20 share of containership capacity has doubled to 16 percent despite an orderbook above 40 percent of the existing fleet.
For commodity markets, the ageing fleet is the physical counterpart of the shadow fleet debate. Old ships are moving sanctioned and rerouted cargo profitably, which delays fleet renewal, keeps marginal tonnage available for the highest risk trades, and stores up a scrapping wave for whenever freight rates finally break.