A growing number of empty supertankers have been turning away from the Persian Gulf as escalating Iranian attacks threaten a critical transfer hub for wartime oil shipments. At least 10 very large crude carriers and several Suezmax vessels approaching the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates have stopped or reversed course in recent days, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Other vessels are still continuing into the region.
Fujairah is commonly signalled as an interim destination by vessels ultimately sailing to the Gulf of Oman, where they collect cargoes by ship-to-ship transfer, or onward into the Persian Gulf. The count of ships heading toward it therefore works as an indicator of tanker operators’ appetite for approaching the waterway at all.
That appetite underpins the main workaround of the war. Large crude carriers wait off Fujairah and in Omani waters outside Hormuz while shuttle tankers make the riskier transit through the strait, bring out crude and transfer it for onward shipment. The system has helped Persian Gulf oil exports recover to near prewar levels, but it depends on a steady supply of receiving tankers. A significant retreat by empty VLCCs slows the flow by tying up the shuttles for longer, at a moment when tanker availability is already tight.
The pullback is striking given the rewards on offer. A global tanker shortage has pushed shipping costs to extraordinary levels, with hiring a vessel to haul oil from the United States to China now costing more, in Bloomberg’s comparison, than launching a rocket into space. When that money no longer compensates owners for the approach to Fujairah, the constraint on Gulf exports becomes willingness rather than capacity.