Europe’s benchmark gas price, the Dutch TTF front month, stood at 86.03 euros per megawatt hour on Thursday morning, about 96.56 dollars, its highest level since December 2022, even after a 1 percent daily dip alongside crude. EU gas storage was 74 percent full as of October 14, on Gas Infrastructure Europe data, well below the five year average of about 86 percent this close to the heating season.
The shortfall is a flow problem, not just a stock problem. LNG flows from the Middle East remain about 80 percent lower than last year’s volumes, ING noted on Thursday, and the market is increasingly pricing Persian Gulf LNG staying largely absent through much of the northern winter, with Europe and Asia competing for the same spot cargoes.
Analyst winter outlooks cited in the reporting assume Hormuz stays closed through the fourth quarter with a gradual reopening in early 2027, a path that makes late winter the danger point if European stocks run low and cold weather hits either continent.