The energy transition faces a critical minerals crunch by 2035 that is not only about how much miners can dig, according to a report from Santiago based GEM Mining Consulting. GEM estimates projected supply will meet just 68 percent of lithium demand in 2035, 74 percent for cobalt and 75 percent for copper. On its volume scarcity index, scored out of 100, lithium registers 80, cobalt 65 and copper 62.
The report’s more useful contribution is the second measure. Its supply chain fragility index scores rare earth magnets at 95 and battery grade graphite at 89, even though projected supply covers 107 percent and 96 percent of their respective 2035 demand, because processing capacity is concentrated in China. Diversified magnet supply outside China would cover only about 15 percent of global demand, GEM estimates. Cobalt scores 78 for fragility, nickel 66 on Indonesian and Chinese processing concentration, and copper a comparatively low 36 despite its physical deficit.
GEM also discounts the headline project pipeline. Adjusting for permitting and financing delays, ramp up problems, metallurgical losses and customer qualification, it calculates that a project designed for 100,000 tonnes a year may deliver only about 60,200 tonnes of reliable, saleable output, a haircut of nearly 40 percent. The implication for valuation cuts both ways: a smaller deposit with proven processing, infrastructure and customers may be worth more, strategically and commercially, than a larger resource with no route to market. For policy, the priority differs by mineral: dependable new mine production for lithium, cobalt and copper, and diversified refining outside dominant producers for graphite and rare earths.