Kenya’s maize production for 2026/27 is now forecast at 2.2 million tonnes, down 51 percent from an initial 4.5 million tonne projection, after an extended dry spell from early June through late July hit western Kenya at critical crop stages, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Nairobi reported. Rainfall across much of the grain belt was the lowest since 1980, with monthly deficits of more than 200 millimetres in places, and field staff found close to half the planted area in the North Rift and west wiped out, with surviving fields yielding up to 35 percent less than usual.
Wheat was cut 54 percent to 130,000 tonnes. Irrigated rice held up, with milled output raised to 225,000 tonnes. The import bill is the consequence: Kenya will need about 2.3 million tonnes of maize imports and 2.6 million tonnes of wheat imports to close the gap, on the FAS figures.
At 2.2 million tonnes the maize crop would be the smallest since 2000/01. The forecast lands while Black Sea supply is shrinking and Egypt is tightening wheat import rules, so Kenya will be buying into a harder market than the tonnage alone suggests.