Nigeria’s disinflation extended in September. Headline inflation eased to 14.63 percent on the year, from 15.39 percent in August and 15.43 percent in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, extending the downward trend of recent months in Africa’s most populous economy.
The split inside the print is the story. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, slowed to 12.95 percent from 13.29 percent in August and 22.11 percent a year earlier, a clean signal that underlying pressure is retreating. Food inflation moved the other way, edging up to 19.59 percent from 19.57 percent in August, though it remains below the 20.16 percent recorded in September 2025. Urban inflation was 15.64 percent and rural inflation 12.46 percent.
The policy read is two handed. A falling headline and a falling core support the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recent rate cut, which the IMF this week called appropriate while judging the stance still tight, and the governor used the IMF forum in Bangkok to restate a single digit inflation target. But with food carrying a large share of household spending and still rising at close to 20 percent, the September figures explain why local commentary focused on the cost of living rather than the milestone: the statistical disinflation is real, and it has not yet reached the market stall.