Kilambi News
Saturday, October 17, 2026

Gas build misses forecasts but futures fall on mild weather

Commodities Saturday, October 17, 2026 · Updated Oct 17, 2026 07:06

US working gas stocks rose 67 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 9 to 3,567 billion cubic feet, well below the five year average build of about 90, yet Henry Hub futures fell 3.71 percent on Friday to 3.12 dollars per million Btu.

Why it matters: Storage is tightening into winter, with the surplus over the five year average down to 45 billion cubic feet, but Friday's price fall shows weather forecasts, not stocks, are driving the front month for now.

Data as of EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending October 9, 2026, released October 15, 2026; futures settlement is Friday, October 16, 2026 from the site market tables.

The Energy Information Administration reported a 67 billion cubic foot injection into US underground gas storage for the week ending October 9, taking working gas to 3,567 billion cubic feet. The build was below analyst expectations clustered in the mid 70s and well under the five year average build of about 90 billion cubic feet for the week, leaving stocks 45 billion cubic feet, or 1.3 percent, above the five year average and 143 billion cubic feet, or 3.9 percent, below year ago levels.

The surplus has been shrinking for five weeks, from 148 billion cubic feet above the five year average in early September, as LNG export demand and hurricane related supply disruptions pulled on stocks. Regional detail is split: the South Central region, which serves Gulf Coast LNG terminals, sits below its five year average while the East, Midwest, Mountain and Pacific regions are above theirs.

Prices ignored the tighter print on Friday. Henry Hub futures fell 3.71 percent to 3.12 dollars per million Btu in the site market tables, extending a weekly decline of 3.23 percent, as forecasts for mild weather through late October outweighed the storage signal. A short cold snap this weekend is expected to trim the next build before milder conditions return, leaving the market balanced between a tightening stock cushion and a soft near term demand outlook.

Sources

  1. Natural gas price: a big storage build meets EQT and Cheniere Energy · Kalkine · 2026-10-16
  2. Roll out the barrels: the energy report, October 16, 2026 · Price Futures Group · 2026-10-16
  3. Kilambi News market tables (Yahoo Finance data) · Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-17