Monday, October 19
CMA report on BT and TalkTalk (infra-deals). The Competition and Markets Authority submits its Phase 1 report to the Secretary of State by 5pm UK time on BT’s completed acquisition of TalkTalk Telecommunications and PlatformX Communications out of administration, with public-interest advice under the proposed new ground covering critical national infrastructure, disruption to public services and supply to vulnerable customers. Going in: BT acquired the businesses on October 5 on a debt-free basis, put the cash cost at about £400 million for this financial year including a £60 million trading loss, and took on about 900 staff and 2.5 million customers, who keep being served by separately competing operations while the review runs. The Secretary of State then decides whether to refer the completed deal to a Phase 2 inquiry. A surprise counts as a Phase 2 referral, which would prolong uncertainty over a deal that has already closed and test the new public-interest ground on its first use, or clearance with undertakings, which would let BT fold the rescue into its retail and wholesale plans. Most exposed: BT, UK wholesale and retail broadband, and vulnerable-customer supply.
Tuesday, October 20
France 2027 budget, Part I vote (rates). The National Assembly votes formally on Part I, the revenue half, of the 2027 Budget Act: a 54 billion euro adjustment targeting a deficit of 5.0 percent of GDP in 2027, down from 5.4 percent expected in 2026. Going in: the Assembly defeated the Socialist motion to reject the text outright by 236 votes to 149 on October 13, with National Rally deputies voting against the motion, so debate proceeded on the government’s terms but on the National Rally’s tolerance. The 10-year OAT-Bund spread sits near 138 basis points, inside the 159 basis point intraday peak of October 2 and still wider than Italy’s spread, and the Eurogroup ruled out any eurozone intervention on October 8, so parliament is the only circuit-breaker. The government can negotiate support or invoke Article 49.3, which risks a no-confidence motion. A surprise counts as a failed vote or a successful no-confidence motion, which would push the spread toward and past its October peak three days before Moody’s rules, or a negotiated pass without 49.3, which would narrow spreads into Friday. Most exposed: OATs, the euro and European bank stocks. Hungary’s central bank also decides on Tuesday, with ING expecting a hold on budget uncertainty.
Wednesday, October 21
Bank Indonesia rate decision (rates). Bank Indonesia decides with the BI Rate at 5.75 percent, held on September 23 for a third straight meeting. Going in: ING expects a hold on Wednesday, citing recent exchange-rate stability, while still expecting one more 25 basis point hike before year-end on fuel-price and El Niño risks. Headline inflation was 3.19 percent in August, inside the 2.5 percent plus or minus 1 percent target band, reserves were $146.3 billion at the end of September, and the rupiah traded near 18,060 per dollar on October 16, its weakest since late July, after weakening about 8 percent this year. The bank has defended the currency with intervention and tiered hedging incentives rather than the policy rate. A surprise counts as a hike, which would say the non-rate toolkit is no longer enough and would lift Indonesian bonds and the rupiah, or guidance that drops the tightening bias, which would press the currency. Most exposed: the rupiah, Indonesian government bonds and emerging-market carry.
Chile central bank rate decision (rates). Chile decides with the policy rate (TPM) at 4.50 percent, held in early September. Going in: the calendar frames the call as hold against cut, with forward guidance the main signal. The copper backdrop has softened at the margin: London copper fell for a third day to about $14,303 a ton on October 15 after BHP’s Escondida supervisors accepted a 36-month contract and removed the largest strike premium, although two unions at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine remain on strike, and Brazil’s election cycle weighs on regional risk pricing. A surprise counts as a cut, which would make Chile an early easing case in the region, or a hold with guidance that pushes any cut well into 2027, which would support the peso. Most exposed: the Chilean peso and Chilean rates.
RBI October meeting minutes (rates). The Reserve Bank of India publishes the minutes of its October monetary policy committee meeting. Going in: the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50 percent on October 7, its first hike since February 2023, and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. September inflation then printed at 5.54 percent on October 12, above the 5.40 percent Reuters poll median and a 22-month high, with the bank forecasting headline inflation near 5.8 percent over the next three quarters. HSBC expects another hike in December. The minutes matter for the vote split and for any dissent on the pace, not for the rate itself. A surprise counts as a unanimous hawkish vote with explicit December language, which would firm up a second hike, or visible dissent arguing the October move was enough, which would soften the December pricing. Most exposed: Indian government bonds and the rupee.
Thursday, October 22
BSP rate decision, Philippines (rates). The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decides after September inflation hit 7.2 percent, the fastest since March 2023, above the 6.7 percent consensus and the seventh straight month above the 2 to 4 percent target band. Going in: BMI and ING both expect a fourth straight 25 basis point hike, taking the target reverse repurchase rate from 5.00 percent to 5.25 percent. The central bank has already raised 75 basis points since April. The peso breached 63 per dollar for the first time on October 15, reaching 63.15 intraday, and the 10-year government yield sat near 7.66 percent in early October. A surprise counts as a hold, which would leave the peso to absorb the inflation overshoot and likely extend its record lows, or a 50 basis point move, which would say the bank sees second-round effects it has not yet named. Most exposed: the peso, Philippine bonds and emerging-market Asia rates.
CBRT rate decision, Turkey (rates). Turkey’s central bank decides with the one-week repo rate at 37 percent, held for five straight meetings since a 100 basis point cut in January. Going in: September inflation eased to 29.7 percent from 31.5 percent in August, and the easing case has firmed. ING expects a cut to 36.0 percent, JPMorgan expects a 1 percentage point cut at this meeting and another in December to reach 35 percent by year-end, and BBVA said the sub-30 percent September print strengthened the case for a cut. Gross reserves rose by $11.6 billion in the week to October 9, one of the largest weekly builds of the year. A surprise counts as a hold, which would test the disinflation story the banks have priced and support the lira’s carry, or a cut larger than 100 basis points, which would raise the question of whether easing is running ahead of inflation still near 30 percent. Most exposed: the lira, Turkish bonds and emerging-market carry.
European Lithium shareholder vote (mining). One calendar entry needs correcting before Thursday. The October 22 general meeting is not a vote to approve a BMW supply agreement for the Wolfsberg project. BMW terminated that offtake, the advance payment was returned, and European Lithium confirmed the termination in its annual report published September 30. The vote on October 22 is on the all-share merger with Critical Metals Corp, on a floating swap ratio of 0.025 to 0.045 CRML shares per European Lithium security, which would leave holders with 41 percent of the combined company and which an independent expert called not fair, but reasonable. Going in: the Koralm deposit in Carinthia has no operating licence and no extraction permit, a court ruling on whether a full environmental assessment is required is not expected before 2027, and the shares price the merger rather than the mine. A surprise counts as a rejected merger, which would strand the company with a permitted-nowhere project and no anchor buyer, or approval on terms that disclose new financing for Wolfsberg. Most exposed: European Lithium and Critical Metals shareholders and the thin European hard-rock lithium pipeline.
Friday, October 23
Moody’s France sovereign rating review (rates). Moody’s reviews France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, three days after the Part I vote. Going in: Moody’s said this month that approval of the 2027 budget remains highly uncertain and that the ability of France’s institutions to act in a divided parliament is a key factor for the outlook. Fitch and S&P both rate France A+ after downgrades within the past two months. Debt runs near 119 to 122 percent of GDP on the government’s own path, with a record 340 billion euros of medium and long-term issuance planned for next year. ABN AMRO puts a downgrade to A1 as the bearish case and sees the spread holding in a 130 to 150 basis point range without a credible catalyst, narrowing toward 120 to 130 if political uncertainty eases. A surprise counts as a downgrade to A1, which would align Moody’s with the other agencies a week before the ECB meets on October 29 and test the top of that spread range on Monday’s open, or an affirmation that credits the budget process, which would give OATs their first sustained relief since September. Most exposed: OATs, euro-area sovereign spreads and euro-area bank stocks.
Saturday, October 24
EU-GCC summit, Riyadh: postponed (politics). This entry stays on the calendar but will not happen on Saturday. The European Council announced on October 15 that the second EU-GCC summit, planned for October 24 in Riyadh, has been postponed with no new date set, and the Commission restated the postponement on October 16, again without a date. Reuters linked the decision to security concerns after the Houthi attack on Riyadh’s international airport, which remains closed. Going in: the agenda that now waits covers long-term gas and hydrogen supply, Gulf investment into European industry, and the visa-free travel question for Gulf nationals that the calendar flagged. A surprise counts as a new date announced this week, which would restore the energy diplomacy track, or a second postponement signal, which would confirm that the host capital cannot yet stage the event. Most exposed: EU-Gulf trade and energy diplomacy. Treat any Saturday summit coverage as stale scheduling, not news.
Sunday, October 25
Brazil presidential runoff (politics). Brazil votes in the second round after no candidate cleared 50 percent on October 4, when Flavio Bolsonaro finished first. Going in: every late poll is a technical tie, and they disagree on the leader. Datafolha (2,520 respondents, October 13-14) put Bolsonaro ahead 47 percent to 45 percent, or 51 to 49 in valid votes, narrowed from 49 to 45 the week before. Quaest (2,154 respondents, October 10-13) put Bolsonaro ahead 46 to 44. A Vox Brasil poll published October 18 put Lula ahead 51 to 49 in valid votes. Markets have already traded the first-round surprise: the Bovespa hit a record, the US-listed EWZ fund jumped 12.6 percent and the real broke past R$5 per dollar. The fiscal stakes are the contest itself: Lula’s debt-ceiling pledge is the incumbent anchor, and Copom holds the Selic at 13.75 percent with its next decision in early November. A surprise counts as a wide margin either way with a fast concession, which would settle the fiscal argument before Monday’s open, or a narrow result with no concession, which would leave the real and Brazilian rates to price a contested transfer into the Copom meeting. Most exposed: the real, Brazilian rates, iron ore and agricultural exports, and emerging-market risk.
Also on the tape
The Bank of Korea decides this week with ING expecting a hold, alongside China’s third-quarter GDP and Japan’s inflation figures. The UK publishes September public finances and producer prices on Wednesday, ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s budget statement on October 28, and flash October PMIs and September retail sales land on Friday, with UK money markets pricing a 93 percent probability of a 25 basis point Bank of England hike on November 5. The ECB decides on October 29 and S&P reviews France on November 27, so Friday’s Moody’s verdict is the first of three French tests, not the last.