Wheat rose after weekend strikes between Russia and Ukraine made any deal to restart exports from the two major producers increasingly unlikely. The most active wheat contract in Chicago rose by as much as 0.8 percent on Monday and was up 0.6 percent at 6.645 dollars a bushel at 12:38 p.m. in Singapore, after falling last week to its lowest intraday price since August. Soybeans were up 0.2 percent at 12.785 dollars a bushel in the same session and corn was down 0.2 percent, Bloomberg reported. Friday’s settlements in the market tables put wheat at 663.2 cents a bushel, up 0.42 percent on the day, corn at 473.2 cents, down 0.21 percent, and soybeans at 1,262.5 cents, up 0.1 percent.
The prior week’s weakness had concrete causes that the weekend reversed. Signs that Russia may be exporting some of its crop through Baltic ports, and reports that major exporters including Australia may bring in a large harvest within weeks, had eased supply concerns. Renewed tension has instead raised doubts over any near term availability of wheat through the Black Sea, signalling tighter global supply as buyers seek urgent replacements. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that attacks on Ukraine’s substations had left tens of thousands without power, while Russia said emergency services were working to put out a fire at an oil terminal in St. Petersburg.
Substitution demand is already visible in cash markets. “Our prices in Australia are being supported because of how strong demand will be, or is, to substitute out the Black Sea,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, adding that an average of wheat prices at five of the country’s largest grain ports briefly touched its highest since June 2024 on Monday. Grain Central’s weekly wire recorded the other side of the complex: soybeans shed 30.75 cents on the week despite roughly 1.9 million tons of announced sales, ICE canola broke below 800 Canadian dollars to a seven week low on Prairie harvest selling, and palm oil was the standout, up 3.85 percent on the week on strong October exports and El Nino supply risk for 2027.