Copper is the exception in the energy transition metals complex. BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2026, released on Tuesday, finds that nine of the ten transition metals it tracks have enough supply capacity through 2050, while copper supply falls 20 million tonnes short of demand by that year. The shortfall is 44 percent of projected demand, the deficit opens in 2028, and closing it would require 332 billion dollars of investment in new mines.
Demand does the work in the forecast. BloombergNEF sees copper demand rising 61 percent from 2026 to almost 46 million tonnes in 2050, driven by power grids, electric vehicles and data centres, on a supply view that assumes producers keep developing mines and replacing depleted reserves. The gap widened from the 19 million tonnes projected in the December 2025 edition.
Battery metals look easier by comparison. Lithium demand triples to 4.8 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, yet BloombergNEF sees sufficient supply for lithium and graphite, with a near term lithium shortfall easing as new capacity starts in 2027. Wider use of lithium iron phosphate cells has cut projected demand for cobalt and nickel.
The report is a forecast, and its scenario assumptions are not named in the release summary, so the 20 million tonne figure should be read as a planning gap under stated demand growth rather than a prediction of physical shortage in any single year. Its practical message for miners is about timing: a deficit opening in 2028 cannot be answered by projects that have not yet been financed, given decade long development lead times, which is why offtake linked financing of the kind Ivanhoe Electric is negotiating in Arizona and the industry’s brownfield expansions carry the near term weight.