Kpler estimated that about 40 percent of Gulf crude exports excluding Iran bypassed the strait last month, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates moved more crude through pipelines that avoid Hormuz. A shuttle trade has also spread, in which tankers load inside the Gulf, cross the strait with their tracking signals off, and transfer the crude to long-haul ships off Oman, with the United States providing air cover along the route off the Omani coast, Yonhap reported. Iraqi crude can be resold at 20 dollars a barrel above its pre-war price, worth about 40 million dollars extra per very large crude carrier, and Hamad Hussein, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the system for moving crude through the strait has become established and exporters are more willing to accept the risk.
Middle East crude shipments pass pre-war level as Hormuz flows recover
Middle East crude shipments averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week to October 18, above the pre-war 23.3 million, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz back to about 14 million barrels a day, or 82 percent of their pre-war level, Yonhap reported, citing Kpler data via the Wall Street Journal.
Why it matters: Flows holding above pre-war levels while attacks on shipping continue reduces the weight of the strait both in Iran's negotiating position and in the risk premium carried in crude prices.
Data as of Yonhap News Agency, published October 21, 2026 Korea time and read in full, in Korean, reporting Wall Street Journal reporting of Kpler vessel-tracking data. Single reporting chain, Yonhap citing the Journal citing Kpler, and the figures have not been independently verified here, hence grade C. Developing item.
Sources
- Middle East crude exports exceed pre-war level, Hormuz recovers to 82 percent - Yonhap News Agency - 2026-10-21