Russia’s oil exports through its Northern Sea Route in 2026 have already exceeded last year’s by nearly 50 percent, with some 20 million barrels shipped to Asia from the start of navigation in July to mid October, traders said and data showed. Russia shipped 13 million barrels during the whole of last season, and traders’ preliminary estimates point to another 5 to 10 million barrels by the end of this navigation period. Gazprom Neft will increase its shipments via the route by some 35 percent this year compared with 2025, its chief executive Alexander Dyukov told journalists in Moscow on Friday.
The route, which links Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through Arctic waters, is more dangerous and expensive than the alternatives in normal times, requiring icebreaker assistance. This year it became more attractive as disruptions hit the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, and as tanker freight rates soared to record highs, making the route’s high tariffs look cheap by comparison. For Russia, which controls the route, it is also a secure alternative to European waters, where tankers carrying its oil have been regularly arrested this year. Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia, which opened last month, is already contributing to the rising volumes, and President Vladimir Putin said in September that Russia expects cargo turnover via the route to double to 70 million metric tons a year by the end of the decade.
The oil flows sit inside a broader record season. The Centre for High North Logistics counted 104 confirmed transit voyages through September 30, against 103 in the entire 2025 season and 97 in 2024, with transit cargo of 3.7 million tonnes, up 15 percent from 3.2 million tonnes for all of 2025, and a possible final total near 150 transits and 4.5 million tonnes. Tankers were the largest segment, with 22 eastbound voyages carrying an estimated 2.1 million tonnes, mostly crude from Murmansk, Primorsk and Ust-Luga. Container shipping is also testing the route: 13 container transits by the end of September, including four international Asia to Europe voyages against one in all of 2025.