The Cook Political Report changed three Senate ratings on Tuesday, and the direction of travel was not uniform. South Carolina moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, both shifts toward the Democrats. Minnesota’s open seat moves the other way, from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.
Cook’s own explanation is candidate quality rather than national trend. The shifts in Democrats’ direction, it wrote, are further evidence that Democrats have expanded the map into red territory even in the Deep South, though both races also feature unique factors making each more competitive than it should be. In Minnesota, Cook said Republicans have been bullish for months given the state’s welfare fraud scandal, hoping voters’ concerns about corruption stick to Democratic nominee Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, whose recent polling has slightly underperformed where she should be given the national environment. Her Republican opponent is Michele Tafoya. In Mississippi the Democratic candidate is Scott Colom.
Cook was explicit that these shifts do not change its overall outlook for the Senate. That outlook, set earlier this month, is that Democrats are expected to gain seats, with the open question being how many: Cook revised its estimate of potential Democratic pickups to two to six seats, against the net gain of four that Democrats need for a majority.
Ratings are assessments, not results, and Cook’s are one forecaster’s. Their practical effect is on money and attention in the final two weeks: a Lean Republican rating in South Carolina and a Likely Republican rating in Mississippi oblige national Republicans to defend territory they had budgeted as safe, at the same moment Minnesota requires Democratic defence spending. Election day is November 3.