UNEP says avoiding 1.5 degree overshoot is no longer possible

The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026, published Wednesday, says the chance of holding warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius with no or limited overshoot is gone, with current policies putting the world on track for 2.8 degrees.

Why it matters: The Paris Agreement's most ambitious target can now only be regained by the end of the century, and only on a path that cuts global emissions 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040, far beyond what national pledges currently deliver.

Data as of UN Environment Programme summary of the Emissions Gap Report 2026, The Point of Return, published October 21, 2026 and read in full, with the figures also reported by The Hill on October 21, 2026. Developing item.

The UN Environment Programme said on Wednesday that the chance of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels with no or limited overshoot, a key Paris Agreement target, is now gone, in its Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled The Point of Return. In its lowest possible overshoot scenario, warming peaks at 1.7 to 1.8 degrees around mid century and returns to 1.5 degrees or below by 2100, which UNEP said gives a 50 percent chance on that path if cuts start this year.

That path requires emissions cuts of 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 against 2025 levels, plus removal of about 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by the end of the century, while full implementation of current national pledges would cut emissions only 5 to 8 percent by 2030. Under current policies warming reaches 2.8 degrees by the end of the century, falling to 2.6 degrees if all pledges are met and 2.1 degrees if net zero targets are also delivered, UNEP said.

UNEP says avoiding 1.5 degree overshoot is no longer possible

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