Datafolha puts Lula and Bolsonaro level before Brazil runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are tied at 50 percent each in valid votes in Datafolha's last poll before Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil, erasing the two-point lead Bolsonaro held in the institute's previous survey a week earlier.

Why it matters: Bolsonaro led the first round on October 4 with 47.03 percent of valid votes to Lula's 45.16 percent, so a dead heat in the final polling, inside the two-point margin of error, leaves Latin America's largest economy to be decided by the small shares of blank, null and undecided voters on October 25.

Data as of Datafolha poll as reported by Agência Estado via UOL, October 22, 2026, in Portuguese, read in full; Bloomberg reported the same tie the same day. Poll figures, fieldwork dates and sample are Datafolha's own, registered with the Electoral Justice as BR-09709/2026. Developing item.

In total votes, Bolsonaro has 47 percent to Lula’s 46 percent, a lead down from two points to one in a week, with blank, null or neither at 5 percent and the undecided at 2 percent. Datafolha’s previous survey, published on October 15, had Bolsonaro ahead 51 percent to 49 percent in valid votes, which exclude blank and null ballots.

The poll interviewed 2,520 voters between October 20 and 22 and carries a margin of error of two percentage points. Voters choose between the two candidates in the runoff on Sunday, October 25.

Datafolha puts Lula and Bolsonaro level before Brazil runoff

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