Treasuries climbed across the curve on Thursday, pushing long-end yields to their lowest in a month, as renewed doubts about the durability of the artificial intelligence trade drove investors toward havens, Bloomberg reported. Early trading had the 10-year yield down about 7 basis points to 5.08 percent and the 30-year down about 6 basis points to 5.38 percent, with the two-year yield down about 5 basis points to 4.77 percent, according to the Jin Shi market flash carrying the same levels. By midday the fall had deepened in this site’s market tables: the five-year yield was down about 16 basis points to 4.81 percent, the 10-year down about 15 basis points to 4.99 percent and the 30-year down about 12 basis points to 5.32 percent.
The move reverses the prior close. This site’s market tables for Wednesday, October 21 put the five-year yield at 4.97 percent, up 3.7 basis points on the day, the 10-year at 5.15 percent, up 2.9 basis points, and the 30-year at 5.44 percent, up 1.4 basis points, with the dollar index softer at 101.61, down 0.17 percent, and USD/JPY at 156.93, down 0.85 percent. Thursday’s rally therefore retraces the week’s drift higher rather than extending it, and even after the fall the 30-year yield remains within its recent range, near levels last seen consistently in 2002.
The driver matters for how long it lasts. This is a haven bid out of equities, the same AI valuation doubt that took Seoul’s Kospi down 3.52 percent on Thursday, not a repricing of the inflation path: producer prices are running at 6.3 percent year on year and the Federal Reserve meets on October 27 to 28 with markets expecting a hold and the December meeting live. A rally built on equity nerves can unwind with the next earnings print, and the curve goes into the FOMC week with the long end bid but the policy path unchanged.