The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14 percent at its October 23 board meeting, a decision Interfax described as expected after the bank paused in September following ten consecutive cuts. In its updated medium-term forecast, the bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1 to 7.6 percent, narrowed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5 to 1.0 percent, lifted its 2026 Russian oil price assumption from $60 to $72 a barrel, and raised its average key rate forecasts for 2027 and 2028. The bank linked the main pro-inflationary risks to an imbalance between supply and demand, and the ruble was little changed against the yuan after the decision.
Bank of Russia holds key rate at 14 percent
The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14 percent on October 23, as markets expected, and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1 to 7.6 percent in its updated medium-term forecast.
Why it matters: The hold extends the pause that began in September, and the higher inflation forecast with a raised rate path for 2027 and 2028 signals that easing will come later than borrowers and the government have pressed for.
Data as of Interfax reports of the decision and the updated medium-term forecast, October 23, 2026, read in Russian. The Bank of Russia press release page could not be loaded during this run, so the forecast figures are as reported by Interfax rather than read from the central bank's own document. Developing item.
Sources
- Bank of Russia expectedly kept the key rate at 14 percent (in Russian) - Interfax - 2026-10-23
- Bank of Russia updates forecast of main macroeconomic indicators (in Russian) - Interfax - 2026-10-23
- Central Bank of Russia raised the 2026 oil price forecast from $60 to $72 per barrel (in Russian) - Interfax - 2026-10-23