China has further cemented its dominance of global shipbuilding, capturing nearly three-quarters of new orders over the past year as the industry’s order book approaches record levels, according to analysis from BIMCO. The global shipyard order book reached an estimated 203.2 million compensated gross tonnage as of September 1, 2026, up 13 percent from 180 million CGT a year earlier. The backlog is slightly below the all-time high of 210.4 million CGT reached in May, but remains above the previous record of 195.4 million CGT set in 2008.
Chinese shipyards secured 74 percent of all CGT contracted over the past 12 months. China now controls 64 percent of the global order book, well ahead of South Korea at 19 percent and Japan at 6 percent. Its yards hold more than 72 percent of the order book in each of the six main vessel categories, including containerships, tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers, other dry cargo ships and RoRo vessels, and an 81 percent share of the containership order book. Container ships account for 30 percent of CGT on order and 68 percent of the increase during the past year, BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said.
The backlog presents a delivery challenge. Based on each country’s highest annual output between 2021 and 2025, Chinese shipyards have enough orders to keep them busy for an average of 4.2 years, compared with 1.9 years for South Korean yards and 1.7 years for Japanese yards. Combined deliveries from China, South Korea and Japan reached 40.1 million CGT in 2025, while 55.9 million CGT and 60.0 million CGT are scheduled for delivery in 2027 and 2028 respectively, and Chinese yards’ scheduled deliveries reach 44.0 million CGT in 2028, nearly double the 22.7 million CGT they delivered in 2025.
BIMCO warned that expanding shipbuilding capacity to meet those commitments could create longer-term risks if demand for new vessels declines. For commodity markets, the near-term read is simpler: a multi-year, steel-intensive building programme is already contracted, concentrated in one country’s yards.