Brazilians voted on Sunday in the presidential runoff that closes a campaign this site has tracked since the first round on October 4, choosing between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, seeking a fourth term, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who finished the first round ahead with 47.03 percent of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16 percent.
The final polls left the race inside every margin of error. A Reuters review of the surveys published on Saturday put Bolsonaro narrowly ahead in all five: CNT/MDA had him at 46.3 percent to Lula’s 45.0, from 2,032 interviews on October 21 to 23; Datafolha had 48 to 47, from 4,050 interviews on October 23 to 24; Quaest had 46 to 45, from 3,702 interviews; AtlasIntel had 49.9 to 48.4, from 4,990 interviews on October 18 to 23; and Nexus had 47.0 to 46.0, from 2,000 interviews. Each pollster stated a margin of error of one to 2.2 points, so none of the leads is statistically distinguishable from a tie.
Friday night’s final Globo debate, covered here yesterday, turned on living costs, welfare and corruption, and both camps spent Saturday at rallies rather than in new policy announcements. Turnout is the variable the campaigns themselves stressed: abstention was high in the first round, and Datafolha’s turnout modelling pointed to a slightly wider Bolsonaro edge among the voters most likely to cast a ballot.
Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasilia time and the electoral court begins publishing the national count immediately, with Brazil’s electronic system expected to produce a result within hours. What to watch tonight is not only the winner but the loser’s first statement: both camps have pre-positioned dispute narratives through the campaign, and Argentina’s President Milei, who has feuded openly with Lula, is the regional leader with the most riding on the outcome.