New Zealand is the week’s other priced hike. The Reserve Bank signalled in September, when it raised the official cash rate to 2.75 percent, that the next increase would more likely come in December, but markets now put the odds of a 25 basis point rise to 3.00 percent at Wednesday’s Monetary Policy Review at nearly 90 percent, with about a 50 percent chance of a further rise in December, The Global Banker reported on Friday. ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac all forecast an October hike after most core inflation measures firmed in the September quarter, the data covered in this site’s October 22 story, while Kiwibank dissents. The decision is due at 14:00 New Zealand time on Wednesday, October 28, in a shorter review format with no new forecast set, which makes a hike against the bank’s own September track a communication event as much as a policy one.
Chile opens the decision week on Tuesday. The Banco Central de Chile is expected to hold its policy rate at 4.50 percent, the consensus on the FXStreet calendar, and the central bank’s own survey of traders, reported by Reuters on October 22, has the rate on hold at 4.5 percent for the next 12 months. The rate sits at the top of the bank’s estimated neutral range, and the meeting is the week’s lowest-risk decision, which is itself the information: Latin America’s earliest easing cycle is priced as finished, not paused, a week before Brazil’s Copom meets under a new president-elect.
Australia’s September quarter consumer price index, due at 11:30 Sydney time on Wednesday, is the last major input before the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on November 3. The cash rate is 4.60 percent after a 25 basis point hike on September 29, the fourth increase of 2026. September’s labour data cut against a fifth: employment fell 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7 percent, and money markets price about a 90 percent chance of a hold in November, while ANZ and Westpac still forecast a hike to 4.85 percent. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said this month that the inflation outlook looks worse than the bank forecast, a speech covered in this site’s October 21 story, so a trimmed mean print at or above the 3.6 percent August rate would put the two bank forecasts, not the market’s, in charge of the meeting.
Thursday carries the week’s heaviest US data alongside the ECB: the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, both landing the morning after the FOMC decision. Tokyo CPI for October follows on Friday morning Tokyo time, hours before the Bank of Japan decision, and the euro area’s third-quarter GDP flash estimate closes the week on Friday. None of these prints has a consensus surprise priced the way the central bank decisions do, and the core PCE figure is the one with a direct line into the December FOMC odds.
In India, the week’s funding operations run on the schedule set last week: the Reserve Bank’s 150,000 crore four-day variable rate repo is conducted on Monday, October 26, state governments sell 23,300 crore of securities on Tuesday, and 23,000 crore of treasury bills are auctioned on Wednesday, the first bill sale since the October 21 full rejection. All three were covered in full in this site’s October 24 edition; Monday’s repo cut-off is the figure that updates the story.
Thailand’s prime minister said GDP will beat the 2.1 percent forecast, the Bangkok Post reported on Saturday. The item is single-sourced to that report, with no figure beyond the forecast itself, and is recorded here as a claim to check against the official outturn rather than as data. The Financial Stability Board’s Regional Consultative Group for Sub-Saharan Africa met in Maseru on Friday, the FSB said, a standing financial stability forum with no policy action attached. The International Monetary Fund’s working paper series added a study titled Global Spillovers from U.S. Bond Supply Shocks in the feed window; no figure from the paper is stated here because the paper itself was not read in this run.