The AI capex question gets its next set of answers this week, in a 48 hour window that also contains a Federal Reserve decision. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on Wednesday, October 28, and Amazon reports after the close on Thursday, October 29. Apple follows on Monday, November 2. Meta and Tesla already reported on October 21.
The consensus figures compiled by SentiSense from company investor pages and analyst estimates put Microsoft fiscal first quarter revenue at about 90.63 billion dollars with earnings per share of 4.71 dollars, Alphabet third quarter revenue at about 127.91 billion dollars with earnings per share of 3.03 dollars, and Amazon third quarter revenue at about 202.16 billion dollars with earnings per share of 1.96 dollars. These are estimates, not results, and they are the bar the prints will be judged against.
Meta’s print last week is the template for how the market is now scoring these reports. Revenue grew 26 percent year over year to 64.6 billion dollars, a strong top line, and the shares still fell, with Meta down 9.4 percent on the week into Friday’s close, because the capex and free cash flow lines are what investors are pricing. Alphabet is down 5.98 percent on the week at 320.21 dollars, and Microsoft was the only megacap gainer on Friday, up 0.66 percent at 524.51 dollars.
Timing adds a second variable. The Federal Reserve decision lands on the afternoon of October 28, hours before Microsoft and Alphabet release, so the first reaction to both prints will be filtered through whatever the Fed does to the discount rate on long duration earnings. Sandisk reports October 29, giving the memory side of the same trade a print of its own.