Monday, October 26
CPC Central Committee fifth plenum, Beijing (politics). The fifth plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee opens in Beijing and runs to Thursday, October 29, setting economic, technology and security policy direction, with a communique expected at the close. Going in: the plenum language shapes the policy agenda Beijing implements into 2027, including growth support, property and technology priorities, and any personnel changes would be announced with the communique rather than during the session. A surprise counts as communique wording that shifts the growth or property stance materially in either direction, or a senior personnel change, either of which would move Chinese equities, the offshore yuan and industrial commodity demand before Thursday’s close. Most exposed: Chinese equities, the offshore yuan, copper and iron ore demand.
Tuesday, October 27
Israel general election (politics). Israel votes in its first on-time Knesset election since 1988, a contest the calendar frames as a referendum on October 7: the opposition demands a formal inquiry, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects one, and more than 60 percent of Israelis told IDI polling that October 7 attitudes are central to their vote. Going in: the final television polls published on Friday, October 23 put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar as the largest single party at 22 to 23 seats against Likud’s 19 to 21, with the opposition bloc at 52 to 56 seats and the Netanyahu bloc at 50, so neither bloc reaches the 61 seats needed for a majority and Arab parties, at 14 to 16 seats, hold the balance in coalition talks. One outlier survey, Channel 14, projects an unchanged 62-seat Netanyahu majority. Prediction markets on Sunday put Eisenkot at about 52 percent to be the next prime minister against about 28 percent for Netanyahu. A surprise counts as either bloc clearing 61 seats on its own, which would end the coalition arithmetic on election night, or a result so fragmented that a unity or minority arrangement becomes the only route to a government. Most exposed: the shekel, Israeli equities and the regional risk premium, and the result decides who manages the Iran war and the stalled Gaza deal.
FOMC meeting opens (rates). The Federal Open Market Committee opens its two-day meeting with the federal funds target at 3.75 to 4.00 percent after the unanimous September 16 hike, and the decision lands on Wednesday. Going in: prediction markets price the Fed at 91 to 95 percent to hold on Wednesday, with roughly a three-in-four chance of a December hike, and the September projections put the median end-2026 rate at 4.1 percent. September payrolls rose only 29,000, which weakened the growth case for another move, while sustained triple-digit Brent is the upside inflation risk Chair Warsh has to address. A surprise counts as a hike on Wednesday, which almost no pricing allows for, or hold language that takes December off the table. Most exposed: global rates, the dollar, commodities and emerging markets. The full preview is in Wednesday’s entry.
Banco Central de Chile rate decision (rates). Chile’s central bank decides with the overnight policy rate at 4.50 percent after the last hold. Going in: the consensus for this meeting is a hold, and Chile is the large emerging-market central bank deciding in the same week as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, so its statement will show whether easing space exists anywhere in the region while inflation stays above target. A surprise counts as a cut, which would make Chile the first mover on easing in this cycle and press the peso, or a hold paired with language that rules out cuts into 2027, which would support the peso and Chilean sovereign bonds. Most exposed: the Chilean peso, Chilean sovereign bonds and copper-linked assets. Watch the vote split if published and the statement language on inflation and the exchange rate.
Wednesday, October 28
FOMC rate decision (rates). The Federal Reserve announces at the close of the two-day meeting, with the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Going in: a hold is the near-consensus outcome in market pricing at 91 to 95 percent, December is priced at roughly three-in-four for the next hike, and the rate cycle has flipped oil-driven, so the statement’s treatment of energy inflation matters more than the decision itself. A surprise counts as a hike, or a hold whose statement and press conference push December pricing sharply either way, in particular if Warsh frames triple-digit Brent as a reason to move sooner. Most exposed: US Treasuries across the curve, the dollar and global duration.
Bank of Canada rate decision (rates). The Bank of Canada decides with the overnight rate at 2.25 percent, held on September 2 for a seventh straight meeting. Going in: this is the one major bank priced to move. A Reuters poll has a majority of economists expecting a hike to 2.50 percent on Wednesday, swap pricing implies about 85 percent of a hike, and Rabobank holds the minority call for no change. The Federal Reserve’s September hike and a strong dollar have put the hold stance under pressure, and the statement has to address tariff and energy impacts directly. A surprise counts as a hold, which would run against both the poll majority and market pricing and would hit the Canadian dollar and the front end at once, or a hike paired with guidance for more, which would extend the repricing. Most exposed: the Canadian dollar, Canadian bonds and mortgage pricing.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand OCR review (rates). The RBNZ decides with the official cash rate at 2.75 percent after a 25 basis point hike on September 2, its second straight increase. Going in: the market prices nearly 90 percent for a further hike to 3.00 percent on Wednesday, following the September quarter inflation print covered on this site on October 22, when bank economists moved to hike calls. A surprise counts as a hold, which would contradict the pricing almost completely and drop the New Zealand dollar, or a hike with guidance that the tightening round is finished, which would cap the move in bonds. Most exposed: the New Zealand dollar and New Zealand bonds.
Australia Q3 CPI (rates). The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes third-quarter consumer prices, the print the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September minutes point to ahead of its November 3 decision. Going in: the trimmed mean is expected at 3.6 percent, broadly in line with the previous quarter, with Goldman Sachs expecting a 0.95 percent quarterly rise. The cash rate is already 4.60 percent after four hikes in 2026, underlying inflation has held at 3.6 percent for three months, and RBA officials said this weekend that the inflation job is not done, with a November rise in view. ANZ and Westpac expect a fifth hike in November; CBA and NAB expect a hold. A surprise counts as a trimmed mean at or above 3.8 percent, which would settle the November argument for a hike, or a print below 3.4 percent, which would take November off the table and hit the Australian dollar. RBA officials also appear before parliament the same day. Most exposed: the Australian dollar, Australian government bonds and November rate pricing.
UK Autumn Budget 2026 (politics). Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget, with the fiscal headroom, tax measures, the gilt issuance remit and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts as the four items markets will trade. Going in: the 30-year gilt yield pierced 6 percent in early October, and headroom is estimated at 10 to 12 billion pounds, down from 23.6 billion pounds in March, so the margin against the fiscal rules is about half what it was in the spring. UK money markets price a high probability of a Bank of England hike on November 5, which makes the Budget’s effect on gilt supply a rates event as much as a political one. A surprise counts as a package that rebuilds headroom well above the estimates, which would rally gilts, or tax and spending choices that consume the remaining headroom, which would test the 6 percent level in long gilts again. Most exposed: gilts, sterling and UK equities.
Thursday, October 29
ECB rate decision (rates). The European Central Bank decides with the deposit facility at 2.50 percent after a 25 basis point hike on September 10. Going in: a hold is expected, a Reuters poll puts the next hike in December, and back-to-back hike odds sit below 30 percent after President Lagarde’s dovish September 28 slant, when she argued that higher yields substitute for hikes. September flash inflation printed 3.8 percent, the hottest since September 2023, and France’s 10-year spread over Germany closed Friday at 170 basis points, its widest since 2011, after 177 basis points on Thursday. The press conference will be dominated by questions on French bonds, the Transmission Protection Instrument and whether the French moves change the policy approach, against open speculation about Lagarde’s succession. A surprise counts as a hike, or any direct commitment on French spreads that markets read as a backstop, either of which would move Bunds, French spreads and the euro together. Most exposed: Bunds, the French spread at 130 to 170 basis points, the euro and peripheral spreads.
US advance Q3 GDP and September core PCE (rates). The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September PCE price index at 08:30 ET, the morning after the FOMC decision. Going in: consensus puts GDP growth at about 3.2 percent annualised, up from 2.2 percent in the second quarter, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking 3.5 percent, and September core PCE is expected at 3.1 percent year on year, up from 3.0 percent, with headline PCE at 3.7 percent, up from 3.4 percent. Continuum Economics, below consensus at 2.8 percent, expects business investment to rise 9.6 percent on AI spending. A surprise counts as core PCE at 3.3 percent or above, which would lift December hike pricing toward certainty regardless of what the Fed said on Wednesday, or GDP below 2 percent, which would revive the growth case against further hikes. Most exposed: US Treasuries, the dollar and equity index futures. Watch real consumer spending and any revision to second-quarter GDP.
Bank of Japan policy meeting opens (rates). The Bank of Japan opens its two-day meeting with the overnight call target at 1.25 percent after a 25 basis point hike on September 18 passed 7 to 2, and the decision lands on Friday with the Outlook Report. Going in: a hold at 1.25 percent is expected, the Outlook Report is set to judge whether underlying inflation is at its 2 percent target, and 83 percent of polled economists point to December 18 for the next hike. The 10-year JGB yield sits near 3.06 to 3.10 percent, the highest since August 1996, the 2-year at 1.95 percent is a 31-year high and the 30-year is at 4.165 percent. A surprise counts as a hike on Friday, or outlook language that brings December forward, either of which would move the yen and global term premia over the weekend. Most exposed: JGBs, the yen, global term premia and carry trades. The full preview is in Friday’s entry.
Central Bank of Egypt rate decision (rates). Egypt’s central bank announces its decision, with the pound, Egyptian T-bills and frontier carry positioning most exposed. Going in: the calendar frames the question as hold against cut, and the decision lands with Red Sea and Hormuz shipping disruption still cutting Suez revenues and regional risk elevated, so the statement signals how much exchange-rate pressure the bank will absorb and how much it will defend with rates. A surprise counts as a cut, which would put the defence of the pound ahead of carry returns, or a hike, which would say FX pressure is worse than the revenue figures alone show. Most exposed: the Egyptian pound, EGP T-bills and frontier carry positioning. Watch any change in corridor language.
CPC fifth plenum closes (politics). The Beijing plenum closes and the communique is published, the document Monday’s entry flags. Going in: the test is the wording on the economy, growth support, property and technology, read against the agenda Beijing then implements into 2027. A surprise counts as a material shift in that wording or a senior personnel change, either of which moves Chinese equities, the offshore yuan and industrial metals into Friday. Most exposed: Chinese equities, the offshore yuan and commodity demand.
Friday, October 30
Bank of Japan rate decision (rates). The Bank of Japan announces at the close of its meeting, with the target at 1.25 percent and the Outlook Report published alongside. Going in: a hold is the expected outcome, December 18 is the polled date for the next hike, and Governor Ueda’s guidance on the outlook for underlying inflation is the item that decides whether December pricing firms or slips. JGB yields are already at multi-decade highs, so the market’s sensitivity is to language, not to the rate. A surprise counts as a hike, a dissent larger than September’s 7 to 2 split in favour of one, or guidance that effectively pre-commits December, any of which would strengthen the yen and add to global term premia. Most exposed: JGBs, the yen and carry trades.
BanRep Colombia rate decision (rates). Colombia’s central bank decides with the policy rate at 12.25 percent after a surprise 25 basis point hike on September 30. Going in: the question is follow-through, whether BanRep extends a tightening cycle it restarted without warning a month ago, and the vote split is the best guide to intent. A surprise counts as a second straight hike, which would confirm September was the start of a cycle rather than a single adjustment and would lift the peso and Colombian TES yields, or a hold with guidance that closes the cycle, which would do the opposite. Most exposed: the Colombian peso and Colombian TES.
Saturday, October 31
Russia diesel export ban expiry (commodities). Russia’s diesel export ban expires on October 31. Going in: September product exports rose while diesel shipments fell under the ban, and domestic stocks have been rebuilding ahead of winter, which gives Moscow the option to let diesel flow again without an immediate domestic shortage. The decision is an announcement, not a meeting, and no extension had been signalled in this site’s commodities reporting through Sunday. A surprise counts as an extension of the ban, which would tighten European diesel supply into winter and lift gasoil cracks and refining margins, or a full lapse with export volumes recovering quickly, which would press those margins. Most exposed: European diesel and gasoil, refining margins and product tanker demand.
Sunday, November 1
OPEC+ monthly meeting on December quotas (commodities). The seven core OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, meet to set December production quotas, the next marker after the October 4 decision that held November targets. Going in: quotas have been paper-only since the Iran war cut Gulf exports to 60 to 80 percent of normal, and the group has held targets for two months running, with Brent at 111.70 dollars on this site’s latest market tables. The 2027 capacity review has been delayed to mid-November, so any signal on 2027 baselines would be early. A surprise counts as a quota change for December, the first in three months, or language that brings the capacity review forward, either of which would reset the 2027 baseline argument. Most exposed: Brent and WTI, diesel and gasoil cracks and tanker freight, with a rates read-through through the energy-to-inflation channel that drove this whole week.
Also on the tape
Clocks change in North America and Europe this week, which compresses the overlap between the Wednesday and Thursday decision windows. Brazil’s Copom meets on November 3 to 4 and the Bank of England on November 5, so Wednesday’s Budget and Thursday’s ECB decision are priced partly as inputs to meetings that fall just outside this preview. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on November 3, one week after the CPI print that Wednesday’s entry covers.