US natural gas rose 14.36 percent to 3.02 dollars per million British thermal units, the largest move in the tables by a wide margin. This morning’s reporting gives the move a positioning frame rather than a new supply headline: the record money manager short in US gas, 599,731 contracts in the CFTC data reported on this site and updated today, is the squeeze risk, and the European benchmark made a four year high this morning on thin winter storage (see today’s European gas story). No new US supply or weather print in this morning’s reporting explains a move of this size on its own.
Brent crude fell 6.01 percent to 109.70 dollars a barrel and WTI fell 2.23 percent to 100.97 dollars, giving back part of last week’s run to a five month high of 116.72 dollars. No clear single driver for the fall appears in this morning’s reporting. The commodities edition instead leads on the EQT and Range Resources merger, the largest US gas deal of the year, and on Saudi Arabia leasing crude storage in Singapore, neither of which is a crude price story.
Silver miners fell 2.54 percent to 74.06 dollars and gold miners fell 1.82 percent to 80.20 dollars, even as gold itself steadied, up 0.59 percent to 4,031.70 dollars an ounce (see today’s gold story). The miners are falling while the metal they produce holds above 4,000 dollars, and no company specific driver for the shares appears in this morning’s mining reporting.
Copper was split by venue. The US contract in the tables rose 1.24 percent to 6.56 dollars a pound, while today’s copper story reports the LME three month price easing to 13,855 dollars a tonne as exchange stocks rose for a twelfth straight session and the Yangshan premium fell to a record low. Dry bulk freight rose 1.29 percent, with no clear single driver in this morning’s reporting.
In rates, the US 10 year yield rose 3.5 basis points to 4.99 percent and the 5 year rose 3.7 basis points to 4.80 percent, opening the week just below 5 percent (see today’s Treasury yields story) ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Alphabet fell 1.24 percent to 320.21 dollars in the equity tables, the largest big tech move, in the week its earnings and the wider hyperscaler capital spending test arrive (see today’s big tech earnings story).
The cross-market read is a split energy complex and a cautious tape, not a risk panic. Gas was bid on a crowded short and a European storage shortage, crude was offered after an extreme run, miners fell while bullion held, and yields inched up rather than spiking, all of it positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan decisions between Wednesday and Friday rather than a verdict on any of them.