The Banco Central de Chile’s board voted unanimously on Tuesday to keep the monetary policy rate (TPM) at 4.5 percent, where it has stood since December 2025, matching the consensus going into the meeting. The statement hardened on prices: inflation through September was in line with the bank’s September Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) at 4.1 percent overall and 3.2 percent core, but the board said inflation risks “have increased materially,” with projections for the coming months rising significantly above the IPoM’s central path as oil prices sit about 25 percent above that report’s close, an unusually intense El Niño lifts food prices, and short-term market inflation expectations climb, two-year expectations holding at 3.0 percent in the bank’s expectations survey while rising to 3.2 percent in its financial traders survey.
Activity is pulling the other way: August Imacec fell 1.0 percent from a year earlier, below the IPoM’s central scenario on mining output, while non-mining Imacec rose 1.4 percent, and third-quarter high-frequency indicators show consumption and, especially, investment still weak. The board said the future path of the TPM will be assessed meeting by meeting, that it will be particularly attentive to signs of greater pass-through or persistence from the shocks, and that it will take the decisions needed to place projected inflation at 3 percent over a two-year horizon; the minutes follow on November 4 and the next meeting is December 15.