The three polls, published by the New York Times and Siena University on Wednesday, point in different directions at once. In South Carolina, Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are tied at 48 percent each among likely voters, making a heavily Republican state a genuine tossup in the final week. In Minnesota’s open seat race, Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya by 54 percent to 40 percent, a wider margin than the race’s tossup billing suggested. In Florida’s special election for the seat Ashley Moody was appointed to, Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 50 percent to 44 percent.
The polling averages tell a softer version of the same story. RealClearPolitics averages tabulated on October 27 had Graham ahead by 2.7 points in South Carolina, Flanagan ahead by 3.4 in Minnesota and Moody ahead by 7.3 in Florida, all three rated from tossup to leans Republican. The new Siena figures move each race in the Democrats’ favour relative to those averages without changing the Florida picture: even on the friendliest reading, Florida remains the hardest climb on the map, and the South Carolina tie is one poll, in a state where a separate Citadel poll released October 27 had Graham ahead 43 to 39 among likely voters and a Targoz survey had her ahead 47 to 46.
The map beyond these three states is what makes the majority arithmetic so open. The same averages show tossups in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, which is why Senate control could hang in limbo for weeks after election day, as Axios reported: recounts, runoffs and litigation, including the Alaska certification case already in federal court, can all run past November 3. For both parties the operational conclusion is the same. South Carolina is now worth late money, Minnesota less so, and nobody should expect to know who holds the Senate on election night.