Commodity prices are set to rise 23 percent in 2026, the World Bank said in its October Commodity Markets Outlook released today, reversing three years of declines in energy, where prices are projected to rise 32 percent, with Brent forecast to average 91 dollars a barrel in 2026, up from 69 dollars in 2025, then ease to 79 dollars in 2027. Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2 percent in 2026, the largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 recession, while food commodity prices rise about 10 percent this year and another 7 percent in 2027, metals reach a new high with a 25 percent rise, and precious metals gain 40 percent.
The baseline assumes no major intensification of the conflicts hitting supply. In the Bank’s adverse scenario, where Middle East escalation, damage to Russian oil infrastructure, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Nino combine, Brent could average 105 dollars a barrel in 2027 and food prices could run 12 percent above the baseline, surpassing their 2022 level, a combination the Bank says could produce a food crisis similar to the early 2010s.