United States trucking companies face elevated diesel prices through at least spring 2027, energy and truck stop executives said at the WEX OTR Summit on Tuesday, even if global crude prices retreat.
“I don’t see it coming down until spring, and that’s if things start to work out on the war front,” said Chuck Ryan, president of AMBEST, a network of independent truck stops. “If oil dropped today, that does not mean the price will go down.” Ryan pointed to a shrinking refinery base, about 128 operating refineries against more than 300 in 1980, and to distribution infrastructure with no spare capacity: “There’s no space in the pipelines. There’s no space in the terminals.”
Denton Cinquegrana of Dow Jones Energy said US refineries have been running above 95 percent of capacity, leaving little flexibility for unplanned outages, and that global diesel markets remain exposed to attacks on Russian refineries and shipping restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. The Northeast is the exposed region, panelists said, because diesel and heating oil compete for the same pipeline space in cold weather, a vulnerability deepened by the 2019 closure of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery.
The official data support the tightness claim. The EIA reported on Wednesday that distillate stocks fell 1.5 million barrels in the week ended October 23 to 102.8 million barrels, 10 percent below the five year average. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, Cinquegrana said, restoring inventories and normal shipping patterns could take several months.