India’s liquefied natural gas imports are heading for a record in October even though the prices it pays have roughly tripled in a year. About 2.5 million tonnes had already arrived during the month, with full month imports expected to reach 2.8 million tonnes, up 18 percent on a year earlier, as arrivals from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates rose 80 percent and 30 percent month on month respectively.
The driver is a widening structural gap. Indian gas consumption rose from 60 billion cubic metres in 2022 to 68.5 billion in 2025, while domestic production has stagnated at 34 to 36 billion cubic metres for four years and fell 4 percent year on year in 2026, with September output at 2.73 billion cubic metres against 2.86 billion a year earlier. Domestic gas covered 57 percent of consumption in 2022, 50 percent in 2025 and 47 percent in April to September this year.
Demand held up where it is politically protected. Fertilizer production takes about 29 percent of India’s gas and city gas distribution 28.5 percent; most sectors cut use 10 to 25 percent over the past six months as prices rose, but fertilizer demand fell only about 2 percent and city gas consumption rose roughly 20 percent, with producers sustaining purchases at a West Coast India marker of 32 to 33 dollars per million British thermal units against 11 dollars a year earlier, insulated by government subsidies.
The strain shows elsewhere. Coal carried the power system through the summer as hydropower fell 20 percent, and 95 of India’s 191 coal fired plants were reported to hold critically low fuel stocks, with coal imports 12 percent below a year earlier in September. If coal shortages persist, gas fired generation is the fallback, which would add a further call on the LNG India is already buying at record pace.