ANZ raised its forecast for Brent crude on December 31 to 105 dollars a barrel from 95 dollars, a 10 dollar upgrade that the bank says does not require another geopolitical shock. Its strategists argue that the constraints already confronting Middle Eastern exports, shipping and refined product markets will persist through year end, and that eight months of adapting to disrupted supply have materially weakened the buffers that absorbed the initial shock. Reuters reported the same upgrade on Friday, adding that a material escalation in the Iran conflict could push Brent to 120 dollars or higher, while a credible diplomatic breakthrough combined with improved shipping could bring it back toward 90 to 95 dollars.
ANZ is not the highest house on the street. UBS raised its year end Brent forecast earlier this week to 110 dollars a barrel from 100 dollars, citing elevated uncertainty about the conflict, production and exports from the region, and global demand. The official forecaster sits in the same zone: the Energy Information Administration estimated Brent averaged 114 dollars a barrel in September and put its fourth quarter average at 105 dollars in its October outlook.
Goldman Sachs is the outlier, and its own language narrows the gap. Goldman sees Brent at 90 dollars a barrel at year end and an annual average of 80 dollars in 2027, but Daan Struyven, its co-head of global commodities research, said last week that the risks to those forecasts are clearly skewed to the upside. Goldman estimates the risk premium currently baked into Brent at about 27 dollars a barrel, and Struyven said that for the premium to come off quickly the market would probably need a diplomatic solution that participants see as sustainable.
The longer view pulls the other way. Fitch Solutions, reported by MyJoyOnline on October 29, expects Brent to average 81 dollars a barrel in 2027, and the EIA expects Brent to fall to 74 dollars by the fourth quarter of 2027 as flows recover and inventories rebuild. The disagreement is therefore about duration, not direction: every forecaster in this set sees the premium eventually leaving, and the banks raising forecasts are the ones saying the physical system cannot clear it before December.