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Friday, October 30, 2026

France economy shrinks 0.1 percent as exports slump

Rates Friday, October 30, 2026 - Updated Oct 30, 2026 04:43

France's economy contracted 0.1 percent in the third quarter, missing forecasts of slight growth, as exports fell 1.7 percent, led by transport equipment, and investment fell for a second straight quarter, INSEE's first estimate showed.

Why it matters: The contraction, arriving with inflation accelerating to 3.4 percent, leaves the euro area's second largest economy shrinking while prices rise, a day after the European Central Bank held rates and warned that energy risks are lifting inflation.

Data as of INSEE first estimate of third quarter 2026 national accounts and provisional October 2026 consumer prices, both published October 30, 2026 and read in full in French in this run; every figure is INSEE's own, translated by this site. The growth forecast beaten is the Reuters poll of economists and the Banque de France projection, cited for expectations only. Developing item.

France’s gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2026 after stagnating in the second, INSEE said in its first estimate, against the 0.1 percent growth economists polled by Reuters had expected and the Banque de France had projected. Foreign trade subtracted 0.6 points from growth after adding 0.6 points in the second quarter: exports fell 1.7 percent after rising 2.8 percent, driven by transport equipment, down 9.1 percent after a 20.8 percent jump, in particular aeronautics, while imports were almost flat, up 0.1 percent. Investment fell 0.6 percent after a 0.5 percent fall, and manufacturing production fell 1.4 percent. Household consumption cushioned the fall, rising 0.4 percent after 0.2 percent, government spending rose 0.3 percent, and inventory changes added 0.4 points; the growth already secured for 2026 as a whole stands at 0.2 percent.

In a separate release the same morning, INSEE put French consumer price inflation at 3.4 percent year on year in October on its provisional estimate, up from 3.1 percent in September, with prices rising 0.4 percent on the month after falling 0.3 percent. Energy prices rose 24.1 percent year on year, accelerating for a fourth straight month on gas and petroleum products, and services inflation picked up to 2.7 percent from 2.4 percent, while food inflation eased to 1.2 percent. The harmonised rate rose to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent; final October figures are due on November 13.

Sources

  1. Comptes nationaux trimestriels, première estimation, troisième trimestre 2026 (Informations rapides No. 263) - INSEE - 2026-10-30
  2. Indice des prix à la consommation, résultats provisoires, octobre 2026 (Informations rapides No. 266) - INSEE - 2026-10-30
  3. French economy unexpectedly contracts as exports slump in third quarter - Reuters - 2026-10-30