Ghana’s November fuel pricing window splits the two main products in opposite directions. The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies projects petrol prices will fall by up to 3.35 percent per litre from November 1, while diesel rises by about 1.50 percent and liquefied petroleum gas by 0.81 percent per kilogram, for the November 1 to 15 window. Market estimates put petrol at about 17.02 cedis a litre and diesel at about 18.99 cedis, with final prices varying by marketing company.
The drivers are international product prices, not crude alone. Crude fell 1.90 percent during the review period, but international petrol prices fell 4.97 percent while diesel rose 3.54 percent and LPG rose 21.33 percent. The cedi appreciated 0.70 percent to an average of 11.7326 per dollar between October 12 and 27, which COMAC partly attributes to Ghana Gold Board foreign exchange interventions, and that currency support trimmed both the petrol fall’s cost and the diesel rise.
The regulator’s floors move the same way. The National Petroleum Authority cut the minimum petrol price floor from 16.09 to 15.39 cedis a litre and raised the diesel floor from 17.09 to 17.41 cedis, while the LPG floor eased from 13.89 to 13.73 cedis a kilogram. The floors are minimums, not retail prices, and exclude trader premiums and marketer margins. Government and industry adjustments to the diesel levy and margins, introduced in April to moderate diesel increases, remain in place for another month at an unchanged total value.
A second chamber, the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers, projects a smaller petrol fall of 1.71 percent and a larger diesel rise of 4.07 percent, so the direction is agreed and the size is not. Ghanaian reporting has also carried the National Petroleum Authority explaining that diesel is under particular supply attention at the moment, which matches the global pattern in today’s edition: diesel is the tight product on three continents at once.