Chile expects its copper output to stage only a modest recovery next year after a historic slump, leaving it well below recent levels as aging mines contend with deteriorating ore quality and increasingly challenging geology. State copper commission Cochilco cut its 2027 production forecast to 5.08 million metric tons, implying a 3 percent rebound, and slashed this year’s estimate to 4.94 million tons from 5.27 million amid accidents and wild weather, representing an 8.4 percent annual drop.
Chile’s output sank to its lowest quarterly level in at least two decades in the three months through September. OilPrice.com’s weekly round put third quarter output down 12 percent year on year to 1.16 million tonnes, driven by recurring mining accidents, inclement weather, operational problems and declining ore grades.
This year’s downturn has been concentrated at some of Chile’s biggest operations. Mines run by Codelco and BHP Group account for 77 percent of the net decline, according to Cochilco, which cited lower ore grades, maintenance and interruptions that have hurt processing and copper recoveries.
A muted Chilean rebound is nevertheless expected to play an important role in global mine supply next year. Cochilco sees worldwide production recovering 3.4 percent in 2027 after contracting 0.6 percent this year, with Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo together accounting for about 37 percent of the increase. The refined market will remain tight even as supply improves: Cochilco forecasts a surplus next year equivalent to just 0.8 percent of consumption.
Against that backdrop, Cochilco raised its copper price forecasts to 6.18 dollars a pound for 2026 and 5.95 dollars for 2027, from 5.95 dollars and 5.10 dollars previously. Demand for refined copper is expected to grow 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, even as growth in China slows to 1 percent from 1.6 percent.