Italian inflation accelerated sharply in October. The national consumer price index rose 0.9 percent on the month and 5.4 percent on the year, up from 4.2 percent in September, according to Istat’s preliminary estimates. The harmonised index rose 1.2 percent on the month and 5.6 percent on the year, also up from 4.2 percent.
Energy drove the jump. Regulated energy product prices accelerated from 25.8 percent year on year to 59.5 percent, and non-regulated energy products from 22.5 percent to 29.4 percent, with regulated energy prices up 18.8 percent in the month alone. Unprocessed food inflation rose from 5.5 percent to 7.5 percent and transport services from 1.6 percent to 3.1 percent. Goods prices rose 7.5 percent on the year, up from 5.4 percent, while services rose 2.9 percent, up from 2.6 percent. Core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, accelerated to 2.0 percent from 1.6 percent, dpa-AFX reported, so the pressure is spreading beyond energy even though energy remains the source.
The growth side offered no offset. Istat’s preliminary estimate showed gross domestic product unchanged on the quarter in the third quarter of 2026, with annual growth easing to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent in the second quarter, below the 0.1 percent quarterly increase economists had expected. Services and agriculture grew and industry declined, and a negative contribution from the net foreign component was offset by domestic demand.
For the ECB, Italy is the awkward combination in one country: the bloc’s fastest rising inflation and a stalled economy, in the euro area’s most indebted large sovereign borrower. A December increase priced for the bloc as a whole would land on an Italian economy that is not growing, while the inflation it is meant to answer is arriving through regulated energy prices that monetary policy does not set.