Japan is expected to overtake China as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas this year, for the first time since 2022, as high LNG prices and sufficient storage in China limit purchases, analysts at ICIS and Kpler say. Imports into Japan are estimated at 62 million metric tons, while Chinese imports are expected at 61 million tons this year, according to ICIS. Kpler also sees a small edge for Japan, at 63 million tons compared with 62 million tons for China.
China became the world’s biggest LNG importer in 2021, Japan retook the top spot in 2022 during China’s COVID lockdowns, and China regained the lead in 2023 through 2025. This year, amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which halted LNG shipments out of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, overall LNG import demand in Asia has plunged on high spot prices in a suddenly tight market, and the Chinese decline is set to be the more prominent of the two.
Chinese LNG buyers acted early to build gas stockpiles amid the Iran war. As of the end of September, China’s underground gas storage was 80 percent full, according to Rystad Energy analyst Xiong Wei.
Lower demand for spot supply from China this winter could mean relief for other LNG customers in Asia and Europe, many of which have been struggling with high spot prices and intensified competition for supply that does not need to transit Hormuz. Japan, for its part, this summer reduced gas fired generation in favour of coal as LNG prices remained elevated, and Asian LNG prices surged to a four year high as very few cargoes manage to exit the strait.