Mexico’s economy grew 0.9 percent in the third quarter, slowing from 1.4 percent growth in April to June but beating the 0.7 percent increase economists in a Reuters poll expected, the national statistics agency INEGI said in its preliminary estimate. Against the same quarter a year earlier the economy grew 3.2 percent, above the 2.5 percent expected, and the fastest annual pace in three years on Banamex’s reading of the data.
Services carried the quarter. Tertiary activities, which cover services, expanded 1.1 percent on the quarter, and secondary activities, which include manufacturing and construction, rose 0.8 percent. On the year, services rose 3.3 percent and industry 3.1 percent. A stronger than expected recovery, Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Andres Abadia said, confirms the expansion extends beyond the temporary boost from the FIFA World Cup.
The rates implication runs through next week’s Banxico decision. Abadia added that the data reinforce expectations the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50 percent through the first half of 2027. Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos noted that, assuming no revisions to prior data, the statistical carryover for the full year sits at 1.8 percent.
The timely estimate is built from econometric models using data available 30 days after the quarter ends and covers only the total and the three large activity groups. INEGI replaces it with the full third quarter figures, with the detailed breakdown by activity, on November 23.