Moderna and Merck presented the detailed ESMO data for intismeran autogene, the individualised neoantigen therapy they are developing together, and the market sold the stock anyway. The vaccine success in a late stage melanoma trial in August had been hailed as a landmark, proof that a vaccine paired with Keytruda after surgery could help prevent relapses, and Moderna shares had surged on that result.
The details presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting appeared to meet those sky high expectations, BioPharma Dive reported. Moderna shares still fell by double digits during the congress. The data had been due on October 24 and were leaked two days earlier, which removed any surprise from the formal presentation.
The analyst framing explains the gap between data and price. William Blair analyst Myles Minter wrote that investors are not yet sure about the vaccine chances against other tumours, or about the commercial outlook for a treatment made through a complicated, personalised manufacturing process. The open question is whether intismeran can become a Keytruda scale megablockbuster or settles as a highly effective treatment option in melanoma, a smaller commercial prize.
That distinction matters for both partners. For Merck, intismeran is part of the plan to extend the Keytruda franchise beyond the drug own patent window. For Moderna, it is the most advanced test of whether its mRNA platform can produce a second major revenue line beyond vaccines for infectious disease. Neither question is answered by one melanoma dataset, however strong, and the ESMO reaction shows the next readouts, in other tumour types and on manufacturing at scale, now carry the valuation.