Russia’s diesel export ban, which was due to expire for producers on October 31, will instead run to the end of January 2027 under a government order now in preparation, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told journalists on October 30. “A government order is now being prepared on extending the ban on diesel supplies to the end of January next year, that is, in effect for three months,” Novak said, adding that, as before, separate exceptions will be made for supplies to world markets. He did not specify the conditions of the exceptions.
The structure underneath the ban does not change. On September 30 the government extended the ban for producers through October 31, while for companies that are not producers the restrictions already run to January 31, 2027, a split the extension now aligns. The stated purpose throughout has been stability on Russia’s domestic fuel market. On October 10 the cabinet partially lifted the restrictions under the diesel arrangement agreed by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, allowing 500,000 tonnes onto the world market in the first stage, and the permitted October volume came to 510,000 tonnes.
What changes is the size of the exempted flow. Novak put planned November exports at about 2.15 million tonnes, more than four times the October volume, and said part of that volume could go to North and South America if partners want it. Later the same day he qualified the plan: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries could reduce the November volume, though in his words the reduction would be slight, and he said December volumes would be set at the end of November. He also said Russia’s winter diesel stocks are sufficient.
The outcome runs slightly beyond what was expected going in. Reuters reported on October 29, citing two people familiar with the discussions, that the ban would be extended to the end of the year with quotas quadrupling to 2 million tonnes in November and a new government order expected in early November expanding the list of exempt refineries. Novak’s on-record version extends the ban a month further, to the end of January, and puts the planned November volume a little higher, at 2.15 million tonnes.
For markets, the two halves of the decision pull in opposite directions. The ban itself, and the domestic shortage behind it, stays in force through the winter heating and harvest demand period, which keeps the ceiling on Russian supply in place. The exceptions, though, are now large enough to matter for Atlantic Basin diesel balances: the first cargoes under the arrangement, seven tankers carrying an estimated 288,000 tonnes toward the United States, are already at sea, and a November programme of 2.15 million tonnes would make Russian diesel a recurring flow again rather than a one-off release, provided the refinery attacks Novak cited do not cut it back.