The World Bank has projected that Brent crude prices will fall to an average of 79 dollars per barrel in 2027, on the back of recovering global production and weak oil consumption, BusinessDay reported from the bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The bank projected prices to approach 100 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, as supply disruptions in the Middle East, tanker shortages and attacks on vessels keep the oil market tight.
After sharp swings in the third quarter, the front month Brent price is expected to remain elevated in the near term, averaging almost 100 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter and 91 dollars in 2026 as a whole, the World Bank noted. Next year, the price is projected to recede gradually to an average of 79 dollars, as the market moves into surplus, before declining to 70 dollars in 2028.
The outlook points to a reversal after a year of supply disruptions. The bank projects global energy prices to rise by 32 percent year on year in 2026 before declining by 12 percent in 2027. Compared with its April forecasts, the bank raised its energy price projections by 7 percent for 2026 and 14 percent for 2027, reflecting expectations that supply disruptions will persist longer than previously anticipated.
On the demand side, global oil consumption is projected to contract by 2.6 million barrels per day, or 2.5 percent, this year, according to the World Bank. The decline will rank as the third largest on record, after the contractions during the COVID pandemic in 2020 and the oil market turmoil of 1980. A prolonged disruption to Gulf shipments might delay the anticipated decline, the report noted.