Five central banks decide in four days this week, and they are not moving together. The Reserve Bank of Australia leads on Tuesday, November 3, with all four major Australian banks expecting a 25 basis point rise to 4.85 percent, the bank’s fifth increase of 2026, as yesterday’s edition reported. Sweden’s Riksbank follows on Wednesday and is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.00 percent, having held at 1.75 percent in September while signalling that increases were expected to begin this year, according to Newsquawk’s week ahead survey of expectations.
Thursday is the crowded day. The Bank of England decides, with its November Monetary Policy Report published alongside. Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50 percent after a 25 basis point hike in September, its second increase this year, with no Monetary Policy Report at this meeting, so the focus falls on whether it keeps its tightening bias. Banxico also decides on Thursday; after Mexico’s economy grew 0.9 percent in the third quarter, beating forecasts, analysts cited by Reuters expect the bank to hold at 6.50 percent and to sound less dovish than in September, with Capital Economics expecting the rate to stay at 6.50 percent through the first half of 2027.
Between the decisions sits the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday, the week’s main supply event for the world’s benchmark curve, in a week when US yields closed October falling, the 10 year at 4.93 percent. Poland’s National Bank and Brazil’s central bank also decide on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan publishes the minutes of its September meeting on Thursday.
Expectations are market and analyst pricing as reported, not predictions. The two expected hikes, in Australia and Sweden, are both responses to domestic inflation that has stayed above target, while the expected holds in Norway and Mexico come from banks that have already tightened this year and are waiting to see the effect.