Chicago grains closed October on the defensive. December corn fell 3.5 cents to 447.5 cents a bushel on Friday, December wheat eased 0.25 cent to 603.5 cents, and soybeans were the exception, with the November contract up 2.5 cents to 1,222.25 cents and the site tables showing soybeans up 1.19 percent on the day at 1,234.2 cents. On the week, the site tables put wheat down 3.44 percent, corn down 1.81 percent and soybeans down 1.77 percent.
The bearish anchor is demand, not the harvest. In its October 9 supply and demand update, the USDA cut its 2026-27 United States wheat export estimate by 25 million bushels to 750 million bushels, down 17 percent from 2025-26 and the second lowest annual total since 1971-72, and cut its average all wheat price forecast by 10 cents to 6.30 dollars a bushel. Hard red winter wheat has been hit hardest, with production at six decade lows after last year’s Plains drought, yet export inspections continue to run below year ago levels.
Black Sea disruption is not rescuing United States prices. The summer rally in wheat futures was driven partly by Russia and Ukraine hostilities disrupting shipments, but it has largely unravelled: as of late October, hard red winter and soft red winter futures were down 17 to 18 percent from early September peaks, with importers sourcing instead from large crops in Canada, Australia and Argentina.
The next supply and demand update from the USDA is due November 10. With United States wheat ending stocks already revised up and global trade cut, the question for the November report is whether export forecasts fall again or whether the Black Sea shortfall finally pulls demand toward United States loadings.