United States natural gas ended the week higher despite a softer Friday. The site market tables put Henry Hub at 2.90 dollars per million BTU, down 1.83 percent on the day but up 9.77 percent on the week, and weekend indications held near 2.88 dollars.
The price sits against the most extreme positioning in the complex. The newest CFTC data carried in this operation, the October 23 release, showed a record money manager short only position of 599,731 Henry Hub contracts and a net short of 192,728 contracts, the most bearish stance in more than six years. No newer COT release fell in this weekend’s window, and the lag matters: the position is a week old, not a live book.
That combination, a record short and a near 10 percent weekly price gain heading into November, is the definition of squeeze exposure. It does not require a bullish fundamental surprise to move the price; it requires only that shorts decide, or are forced, to cover into a thin market.
The contrast with Europe underlines that this is a positioning story, not a global gas shortage story at the United States hub: Dutch TTF closed Friday at a four year high above 100 euros per megawatt hour on record low seasonal storage, a physical tightness the United States market does not share.