Nebraska’s Senate race goes into its final weekend with the best quality poll of the cycle favouring the incumbent. The New York Times and Siena survey, conducted October 23 to 29 among 809 likely voters, puts Pete Ricketts at 49 percent and Dan Osborn at 43 percent. It is one of the first nonpartisan polls of the race this fall, and it cuts against a run of party sponsored surveys that had the contest within two points in either direction.
Osborn’s problem in the poll is identity. The former Omaha union leader is running his second independent Senate campaign, pledging not to caucus with either party, and no Democrat is on the ballot. But 55 percent of likely voters told Siena he is more similar to Democrats, against 4 percent who said Republicans and about a third who called him independent. In a state Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 points, being read as the Democratic candidate by another name caps his coalition.
The same survey found the wider Nebraska environment friendlier to Republicans than the Senate topline suggests: Governor Jim Pillen led Lynne Walz 53 to 40, and the generic Republican House candidate led 54 to 35. Osborn outraised Ricketts in the third quarter and leads among independents, which is why forecasters still rate the race competitive rather than safe.
Status: reported polling, a snapshot with a margin of error of about 4 points on each candidate’s share. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.