Monday, November 2
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. Markets reopen carrying Friday’s risk-off close, with semiconductors down 8.24 percent in the last session, silver down 5.59 percent, the US 10 year at 4.93 percent and WTI crude at 104.12 dollars, and nothing on Monday’s calendar to settle whether the liquidation is finished. The day’s data, the US ISM manufacturing index for October and the Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates, sits on the wider tape in the closing section below, and China’s NPC Standing Committee opens a session that runs to Friday.
Tuesday, November 3
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision (rates). The RBA announces at 2:30 pm Sydney time, which is 11:30 pm Monday in Toronto, with the cash rate at 4.60 percent after a unanimous 25 basis point hike on September 29, and publishes its forecasts with the decision. Going in: money markets price about a 79 percent probability of a fifth hike this year, to 4.85 percent, after September inflation printed hotter than expected, headline CPI at 4.3 percent year on year against a 4.2 percent forecast and the quarterly trimmed mean up 1.0 percent against the bank’s August forecast of 0.8 percent. Westpac holds a hike call, and this site’s rates reporting has all four major Australian banks expecting a rise, against a labour market that lost 39,300 jobs in September. A surprise counts as a hold, which would run against both the pricing and the inflation print and would hit the Australian dollar and the front end at once, or a hike paired with language that opens a sixth move in December. Most exposed: the Australian dollar, Australian government bonds and Australian bank and housing shares.
US midterm elections (politics). The United States votes for Congress, with control of the House and the Senate in play and the count, on this site’s politics reporting, likely to run straight into certification litigation, with a ballot case in Alaska, a restraining order in California and a certification suit in Texas already in motion. Going in: the final generic ballot poll reported by The Hill puts Democrats 10 points ahead, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted Senate races in Minnesota and Louisiana toward the Democrats, Florida and Nebraska have also moved left in late ratings, and Senator Ted Cruz has warned his own party it could lose eight Senate seats. In Nebraska’s final poll, Pete Ricketts leads the independent Dan Osborn by six points. The calendar frames the commodity exposure directly: President Trump has flagged possible renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms, with about 13.2 million barrels a day currently flowing through Hormuz against about 17 million before the war. A surprise counts as Republicans holding both chambers against the final polling, which would cut the litigation risk and the post-election Iran premium at once, or a Democratic sweep large enough to settle control on the night. Most exposed: crude, diesel and gold through the Iran channel, and US rates and the dollar through the fiscal path.
Banco Central do Brasil Copom meeting opens (rates). Brazil’s Copom opens its two-day meeting with the Selic rate at 13.75 percent, and the decision lands on Wednesday. Going in: the meeting has been repriced twice in a month. Copom cut 25 basis points in September, its fifth straight cut, and pre-election pricing pointed to another cut in November, but President Lula’s re-election on October 25 triggered a sell-off the next day, the Ibovespa down 13.9 percent and the real down 8.1 percent, and interest rate futures swung to pricing roughly a 75 percent chance of a hike. Mid-October IPCA-15 inflation ran at 4.62 percent over 12 months, above the 4.5 percent ceiling of the tolerance band around the 3 percent target. The full preview is in Wednesday’s entry. Most exposed: the Brazilian real, local rates and Brazilian equities.
Wednesday, November 4
Brazil Copom rate decision (rates). Copom announces at the close of the meeting that opened on Tuesday, with the Selic at 13.75 percent. Going in: analyst argument and market pricing point in opposite directions. The case for a hold is that nine trading sessions is too short a window to separate lasting inflation damage from a positioning squeeze, that higher government bond yields have already tightened conditions, and that holding preserves the option to act in December. Futures, by contrast, price a hike as the likelier outcome. A surprise counts as a cut, which would say the bank reads the sell-off as noise and would press the real hard, or a hike larger than 25 basis points. A 25 basis point hike in line with futures would still matter for the December path and for whether the easing cycle that ran through September is formally over. Most exposed: the Brazilian real, local rates and Brazilian equities. Watch the vote split and any language on the exchange rate and the fiscal outlook.
Sveriges Riksbank rate decision (rates). Sweden’s Riksbank announces with the policy rate at 1.75 percent, held in September with a signal that increases were expected to begin this year. Going in: a 25 basis point rise to 2.00 percent is expected, which would make Sweden one of two expected hikes in a five-decision run this week alongside Australia. The expectation is single-sourced to Newsquawk’s week ahead survey of October 30 and is flagged as such. A surprise counts as a hold, which would contradict the bank’s own September signal as well as the survey, or a hike paired with a rate path that brings a second increase forward into December. Most exposed: the Swedish krona, Swedish rates and European front ends. Watch the size of the move and the published rate path.
National Bank of Poland rate decision (rates). The National Bank of Poland announces with the reference rate at 3.75 percent, held through the autumn. Going in: ING expects no change on Wednesday and none through the end of the year, with two 25 basis point hikes pencilled in for the first quarter of 2027 if the energy crisis keeps inflation elevated. October flash inflation slowed to 3.5 percent year on year from 4.1 percent in September, below the 3.7 percent consensus, which ING reads as giving the council time, because the increase is concentrated in energy rather than core prices. The meeting carries the staff’s new macroeconomic projection, and mBank is the minority voice expecting a tightening cycle to start this month. A surprise counts as a hike, or a hold whose new projection shows inflation above target into 2028 paired with guidance that brings the first hike into December. Most exposed: the zloty, Polish rates and Central European currencies.
South Africa local government elections (politics). South Africans vote in local elections across all municipalities, with the metro councils the prize. Going in: Ipsos polling reported this weekend puts the ANC at 31 percent, the DA at 25 percent, the MK Party at 14 percent, the EFF at 11 percent, ActionSA at 6 percent and the IFP at 3 percent, and forecasters expect no outright majority in six of the eight metros. About seven in ten voters favour ANC and DA coalition governments where neither party wins alone, and Ramaphosa closed the ANC campaign promising councillors 100 days to show progress. Coalition talks must conclude within 14 days, so Wednesday settles who negotiates, not who governs. A surprise counts as an outright majority in Johannesburg or another large metro, which would remove the bargaining phase, or an ANC result far enough below 31 percent to put its place in the national government of national unity in question. Most exposed: the rand, South African government bonds and JSE-listed domestic earners.
Israel election results certification (politics). The Central Elections Committee submits the certified final results of the October Knesset election to President Herzog, opening formal coalition consultations and starting the mandate clock. Going in: the final results confirmed the Netanyahu bloc ahead without a majority, Likud has claimed the vote was stolen, and the committee chairman has called that claim entirely groundless. Neither bloc reached the 61 seats a majority requires, so the consultations, including whether Arab parties take part, decide who gets the first mandate. A surprise counts as a certification delayed or challenged in court, which would extend the dispute past the formal count, or a first mandate awarded against the bloc arithmetic. Most exposed: the shekel, Israeli government bonds and the regional risk premium, and the outcome decides who manages the Iran war and the stalled Gaza deal.
Thursday, November 5
Bank of England rate decision (rates). The Bank of England announces at midday in London with Bank Rate at 3.75 percent, held on September 17 by six votes to three, with Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Huw Pill dissenting for a rise to 4.00 percent, and publishes its November Monetary Policy Report alongside. Going in: a 25 basis point hike to 4.00 percent is close to fully priced, with market-implied probability at about 95 percent and MUFG and Investec both expecting the move, which would be the Bank’s first increase since August 2023. September CPI rose to 3.5 percent, up from 3.1 percent in August and above the 3.4 percent consensus, and Mann has warned inflation could reach about 4 percent around year end. The decision comes one week after the October 28 Autumn Budget set the gilt issuance remit. A surprise counts as a hold, which at this pricing would rally gilts and hit sterling at once, or a hike with a vote split and forecasts that price a second increase in December. Most exposed: gilts, sterling and UK equities. Watch the vote split first, then the inflation forecast path.
Norges Bank rate decision (rates). Norway’s central bank announces with the policy rate at 4.50 percent after a 25 basis point hike in September, its second increase this year, and no Monetary Policy Report at this meeting. Going in: a hold is expected, single-sourced to Newsquawk’s week ahead survey of October 30 and flagged as such, so the decision turns on whether the bank keeps the tightening bias that followed the September move. A surprise counts as a hike, which would put Norway alongside the week’s two expected hikers and lift the krone, or a hold that drops the tightening bias, which would say the September increase finished the cycle. Most exposed: the Norwegian krone and Norwegian rates.
Banxico rate decision (rates). Mexico’s central bank announces with the policy rate at 6.50 percent, the last of the week’s decisions. Going in: a hold is expected, with analysts cited by Reuters expecting a less dovish tone after third quarter GDP grew 0.9 percent, beating forecasts, and Capital Economics expecting the rate to stay at 6.50 percent through the first half of 2027. A surprise counts as a cut, which would run against both the growth print and the expected tone and would press the peso, or a hold paired with language that puts a hike in play for December. Most exposed: the Mexican peso, Mexican rates and Latin American currencies. Watch the vote split and the balance of risks language.
Friday, November 6
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. The week’s largest US data release sits on the wider tape instead: the October jobs report, covered in the closing section below. What Friday trades on is the accumulated result of the week, the midterm outcome, seven rate decisions and the refunding, read through one labour print three weeks after a Federal Reserve hold that drew two dissents for a hike.
Saturday, November 7
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. Coalition bargaining in South Africa is under way under its 14-day deadline, and Israel’s consultations continue, but neither has a dated event this weekend.
Sunday, November 8
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. The week closes with the South African coalition talks and the Israeli mandate process still running, and with December pricing for the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of Japan now set by how Thursday’s decisions and Friday’s US jobs report landed.
Also on the tape
The calendar carries ten catalysts, but the week’s trading calendar is wider. The US Treasury publishes its quarterly financing estimates on Monday and the quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday, the week’s main supply event for the benchmark curve, with the 10 year at 4.93 percent at Friday’s close and auction size guidance and long-bond buybacks the two items bond investors are watching. US data runs through the week: ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM services and the euro area flash CPI on Wednesday, and the October jobs report with Canadian jobs on Friday. The Bank of Japan publishes the minutes of its September meeting on Thursday, Canada presents a federal budget the same day, China’s NPC Standing Committee sits all week, and Tanzania’s Lissu verdict is due on Friday on this site’s politics watch list. US clocks changed on November 1, so the London to New York gap is back to five hours for every release this week. Brazil’s Copom also publishes into the same Wednesday window as the refunding, which compresses the week’s two largest rates events into one session.